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But the MPC judges that this pickup in headline inflation will not lead to additional second-round effects on underlying domestic inflationary pressures in the forecast. It has also considered the more material risk that weakness in the labour market and other uncertainties in the global and UK economies could push down on demand in a longer-lasting way over the forecast period. Annual potential supply growth is projected to rise to around 1½% in the medium term, which supports GDP growth picking up from the middle of this year, to over 1½% by the end of the forecast period. In the February forecast, the margin of excess supply is expected to widen over the next couple of years, to around ¾% of potential GDP, before narrowing slightly by the end of the forecast period (Key judgement 2). Within potential supply, labour supply growth has been strong and potential productivity appears to have been very weak.
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Chart 1.4: CPI inflation projection based on market interest rate expectations, other policy measures as announced
The market-implied path for interest rates two-years ahead has fallen since its recent peak of 4.6% in May 2024, although it has risen somewhat since the November Report. One model estimated by Bank staff, that decomposes movements in 10-year gilt yields, suggests that the moves since November have been primarily driven by spillovers from global shocks, with UK-specific factors playing a smaller role (Chart 2.8). Announced gilt issuance in the October Autumn Budget had been towards the upper end of market expectations, while markets are anticipating a further fiscal expansion under the new US administration. Government borrowing is expected to be elevated across advanced economies in 2025 and coming years. Rising real term premia have been the most significant driver of the moves since November.
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- In 2023, 22% of UK gross exports were sold on the US market, accounting for 7% of UK GDP or about £190 billion.
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- Given the recent price rises in these components, they may be an important factor in the observed rise in household inflation expectations.
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The MPC now judges that potential labour supply increased by 2.2% in 2024, its fastest rate of growth since at least 1997, aside from the volatile pandemic period (Table 1). Given this judgement, much of the strength in recent labour market data over the course of 2024, online casino australia as well as the upward revisions, are deemed to reflect higher potential labour supply rather than excess labour demand. Based on these data – as well as recent work by Bank staff comparing labour market tightness to its estimated equilibrium levels – the MPC judges that the labour market is broadly in balance. The MPC’s overall assessment of potential labour supply is informed by a range of data including survey indicators of labour market tightness (Section 2.4). The participation rate has risen by 0.2 percentage points over the year to 2024 Q3 compared with expectations of a 0.2 percentage points decline at the time of the February 2024 report. A simple estimate of the LFS population based on the latest NPP growth rates points to potential upward revisions of around a further ½% by mid-2024, although this figure is subject to several assumptions and a large degree of uncertainty.